An Autonomous Agent

exploring the noosphere

Category: thoughts (Page 3 of 7)

Species Xchange

A big reason why it is so hard to fix and respond to environmental crises is the fact that societies lack a means to store ecological value in a monetary form. As a result, in the never-ending pursuit of growth and technological progress we rarely consider the growth and progress of other species. But how can we? Population statistics, ecological value, and other detailed data are rare or non-existent. We have very little quantitative data on the thousands of other species. And we don’t care. The average citizen can barely find time to consider the fate of the Rhino when he/she works 10 hours a day. We are stuck in fifth gear — moving full speed into the future despite the dire consequences of ignorance and a failure to act. The current relationship between humanity and the biosphere is reminiscent of parasitism or cancer. I just hope we are not yet in stage 4. Despite the reliance of our survival on other species, we continually threaten their existence — and indirectly our own.

The solution to the impending crises lies in a change of perception. The often quoted “survival of the fittest” ideology tends to cause people to forget about another important form of evolution — symbiosis. Cancer is the extreme version of “survival of the fittest” and parasitism at the cellular level. Cooperation through symbiosis however, is working together to get the job done (mitochrondria and the endosymbiotic theory). If we change the way we view nature, from “Man versus Nature” to “Man with Nature,” our problems will begin to vanish. The conception of the future will turn from a dismal apocalyptic world to one of harmonious mutualism. A symbiotic biological cooperation between our species and the other species of Earth, who are at our mercy, will forever change the course of history. The importance of symbiosis is becoming increasingly clear as a powerful survival mechanism in biological evolution and the future of homo sapiens may depend on its acceptance.

Brainstorming ways to establish a framework which intimately connects the economics of humans with that of their relatives in a symbiotic relationship, I believe one solution could be via the market. It involves creating a new asset class. By establishing shares of stock in species (or family/order) and having these shares trade in an exchange, the success of other species now becomes a potentially profitable industry for humans. At the same time benefiting the non-human species. Similar to humans trading shares of stock with theoretical values based on the work potential of organizations of labor producing members, the trading of species shares would be based upon the ecological value of biological organisms.

This Species Xchange would provide a means to store human labor potential (money) in the data collection, protection, monitoring, preservation, and development of any number of species. This funding would be initiated through an IPO for each species. I believe this would be symbiosis at its finest. Including other species in our financial decision making would fundamentally change the relationship humans have with their biological relatives.  By protecting the species humans rely on for ecological harmony, while at the same time providing them with a more “bio-diverse” basket of eggs to store their labor potential would, in effect, create a more dynamic and powerful investment system.

Since these shares would lack the legal power characteristic of corporate shares, the Species Xchange organization would guarantee the price per share. This guaranteed price per share would be calculated based on species reports published on a quarterly or semi-annual basis, similar to how corporations release 10K and 10Q reports. The calculation would be based upon various statistical and environmental attributes of the species, determined by experts, suitable for maintaining the harmony of the total ecological system. And this price could increase or decrease from quarter to quarter; depending on how the specific factors change. The only way the shares would be valueless, similar to corporate bankruptcy, was if the species went extinct — in effect providing a strong incentive to keep the species alive and prosperous.

The money raised in the IPO would go towards all manner of initiatives to fund and support the species. It would be managed by a group of people in a primus inter pares form of management. The goal of management would be to spend the money in such a way as to increase the value of the species in relation to all other species. This could include population measurement and control, biological research on the life cycle of the species, detailed studies on the role in the overall ecological network, etc…

For example, let’s say 100 million shares of Macropus Rufus are issued to the public. The IPO is priced at $20 per share. Thus, proceeds of $2 billion would go towards a fund established for the Macropus Rufus species. At the end of each quarter, a species report would be released detailing any changes in population, biological discoveries, and other details related to the status of the species. After each report, a new guaranteed price would be established by a set formula. Let’s say that new price is $22.50. Fast-forward through time and imagine a set of guaranteed prices: $22.50, $22.80, $21.00, $22.10, $25.00, etc… The set of guaranteed prices would form a set of lower bounds for the price series. The only reason an investor would redeem the shares would be in the event of an arbitrage if the price fell below the lower bound. However, it remains to be determined whether this would actually happen.

Perhaps all this seems silly, like something out of science fiction, and not feasible. Even though I would disagree, I think it is at least a step in the right direction. If more people can brainstorm practical ideas which join together humans and other species in a symbiotic relationship with current institutions, we may have a chance at preventing a catastrophic change in the biosphere. Harmony and balance can be restored with the right combination of creativity and institutional power.

A Stock Exchange for Species??

It seems to be entirely possible, and even beneficial, if there was an exchange, analogous to the NYSE, where traders and investors could buy and sell “shares” of a species. The exchange would begin by issuing an IPO on every species. For example, ticker symbol: QA could be the “stock” for Quercus alba.

We need to think outside the box to protect our environment and I see this a way to benefit both man and nature. Man will be awarded with more assets with which he can diversify his financial holdings; nature will win in various ways — including the proceeds of the IPO to protect the species.

This would be initiated to test the idea that a traded asset can be something more general than an organization consisting of human labor and assets.

You may argue that a stock must have a fundamental basis in the value of human commodities and labor. That may be true, however, what limits the definition extending to non-human commodities and the labor of nature? In any case, for the experienced investors, how many companies have you seen being valued in the billions with little or no assets and no profits? In fact, a species actually has an enormous value and potential in terms of biology, ecology, and the sustainability of human activity.

There are numerous possible arguments against this, which I would enjoy countering. Perhaps I will devote more to this in a future post.

Geopolymer Possibilities

With the invention of geoploymers, people now have the ability to cast any shape with extremely hard stone; and even craft the wondrous sculptures and items of ancient Egypt. There are several videos on YouTube displaying current experiments with 3-D printing and geopolymers. Once 3-D printers master the art of printing with geopolymers, humans will have an amazing tool for mass producing structures on par with those of ancient Egypt.

With the right geoploymer mixture, one can remake the beautiful Egyptian vases and busts made of diorite and quartzite. First, import the model of an artifact into a computer using common engineering software such as CAD. Then produce a mold and fill with the desired geopolymer. A company could market these items for a decent price and they would be available for everyone to enjoy. For a little more money, you could add inlaid eyes of lapis lazuli; for the more wealthy, even include pure gold.

Other geopolymer possibilities include:

Desalinization of water through ion exchange; geopolymer development for moon base and other extraterrestrial structures; repairing ancient monuments; fire resistant building materials; concrete ships; durable highway and bridge construction; Margaret Morris suggests radioactive disposal; and more…

I would suggest that we rebuild the three pyramids at Giza to their original appearance with the geopolymer techniques. However, I fear that the Egyptian authorities will not allow it. If that is the case then I propose building the three pyramids in Las Vegas. It would be both an architectural and engineering wonder and a beautiful monument dedicated to the people who helped develop civilization.

Thoughts About a Project and GPUs

I want to do something which combines GPU programming, finance, and/or conservation — something which will help the relationship between humans and the environment. There are a few ideas in my head. One is about displaying data with 3D graphics to give traders more than just a ticker price. The price of a security is a minimal form of information. What is a good method to display the daily progression of trade volume? Most information about short sells, margin levels, and ownership levels are hidden; revealed only on a monthly or quarterly basis. This infrequent update hinders the development and understanding of crash prevention. Combining all of this information into a visual display based on an Ising model (example) and N-Body particle simulation should be informative. Of course I am simply speculating and putting thoughts into words. The two books I am currently browsing through are: OpenCL in Action by Matthew Scarpino and CUDA Handbook: A Comprehensive Guide to GPU Programming by Nicholas Wilt.

CUDA Samples:

Brief Overview of My Experiences with Stocks

My first foray into the stock market was after reading the books of the popular writer, Jim Cramer. And it resulted in buying several penny stocks which were developing “revolutionary” new products. They did rather poorly and I decided to try buying stocks of more well-known companies, like Goldman Sachs and some others which I do not remember. This was in 2007-8 and the tiny gains from my small investments were financially negligible; however, it was an experience.
My knowledge of markets began to change as 2008 progressed into 2009 and I gained experience trading stocks. I lost interest in Cramer and found the work of Benjamin Graham to be far more fascinating. While in high-school I was fascinated by Benjamin Graham’s record of success and his value investing approach to choosing investments. My interest continued as an undergrad in college; I remember reading all of Graham’s articles while sitting through accounting class. Reading Security Analysis more than twice, I attempted to put my newly learned skills to the test. The potential to find muddied gems hidden from view by the dirty coating applied by “Mr. Market” spurred my desire to master the art.
There were a few stocks which I had bought at various times during the period of 2008-9; they fell and rose with the rest of the market during the roller coaster ride from which many people still feel dizzy. One was Reddy Ice, which ended up bankrupt. However, I did not have much money to invest until after the downturn. In this favorable condition I began to search through hundreds, if not thousands of stocks. The final list of suitable candidates fitting Graham’s criteria included a steel producer called Keystone Consolidated Industries. Owned mostly by Harold Simmons’ Contran, the stock had a market value of $36 million. Having a pension fund the size of Texas and a decent sized steel operation (around $500 million of sales per year), I felt this was the best choice. It turned out to be a wise investment, as I finally liquidated my position when Contran finally purchased all the shares at around $9.00. Even at this price, the company’s market value was only around $100 million — a real bargain for Contran, since the pension fund had around $700 million in assets at the time and only $350 in NPV of pension obligations; not to mention the profitable steel company. Carl Icahn, the only other large shareholder, said not a word at the paltry price of $9. To this day, I still believe a fair price should have been at least $20 per share. Despite most of the value being reaped by Contran and Simmons on this transaction, I did benefit.
After this success (and the passing of three years), I found that I lacked the same fascination with Graham as I did a few years before. I think my interest waned as I witnessed “Mr. Market” in action and I realized first hand that market sentiment played a huge role in price determination. “How could people not see the value?” I always asked myself. “Was this a flaw in Graham’s strategy?” And it was precisely this question which led me to realize that people and markets are far from efficient. Graham’s method is only successful for a large diversified portfolio of undervalued stocks. In fact, I really think that value does not exist as an absolute quantifiable truth; value only exists as a social relationship between commodities as Marx writes in Das Kapital. And by doing so, its expression is subject to the whims of human emotion. It is with this perspective which I began reading about the behavior of traders and markets.
Today I am surprised to learn that Harold Simmons passed away in December of 2013. He was a clever man who grew a few thousand dollars into billions.

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