An Autonomous Agent

exploring the noosphere

Category: thoughts (Page 4 of 7)

Flow Chart of Price Formation and Reaction

I think that live price data is important, however, there are far more important numbers to be recorded in a financial market. Live data such as: current number of shares long; current number short; size of investor gain (or another measure to see how long a specific investor has been holding his/her position), etc.

Price can change in a matter of micro-seconds; in the 1930’s this observational task would have been deemed impossible — keeping track of such rapid price changes. Now, computers allow humans to do this with ease. What is preventing society from recording and publicly displaying other data in rapid manner. In other words, can we not use our computers to observe the ubiquitous “invisible hand” of market exchange?

I can only imagine visualizing this data analogously with the video showing flights traveling around the world:

Now, imagine that all the flights leaving Europe are people exiting (shorting or selling) an asset. And imagine that all the flights entering Europe are people buying the asset. Obviously, some issues since # of buyers == # of sellers in real market.

Perhaps this can not be done — obviously, obstacle #1 is state regulations and the corporate black-box. Corporations would see this freedom of information as a threat to their competitive edge and states would deem this “anti-capitalistic.” I like to think that such live data, publicly available may help market regulators and the public make better decisions with regard to investment decisions. Most importantly, such data would immensely improve academic understanding of market behavior.

Brainstorming: Ways to Protect the Earth’s Ecosystem (to be continued…)

Why not construct an IPO (initial public offering) with shares representing whole swaths of ecosystems around the world. There are plenty of ways to measure the health and economic benefit of an ecosystem. This information could be treated just as financial statements are about public companies. Thus, the creation of monetary value in stocks which represent ecosystems. These would be trading vehicles uncorrelated with other assets, traditionally “human” assets. Perfect for hedging against “human” assets which have fundamental support from human institutions.

For example: an IPO of 200 million shares representing the Amazon Rain Forest. Thus if they price at $20 per share, then the market cap of the Amazon would be $4 billion. The money raised could be put to use in various ways by a third party. This third party would be responsible for improving the ecosystem. Thus the money would go only towards preservation and building up the ecosystem. All these ideas would be further researched by people more familiar with the field of ecology.

The shares of the Amazon Ecosystem would trade almost totally uncorrelated with most traditional assets; thus allowing a new form of diversification. Some of the downsides would include the fact that other governments own these resources and make decisions independently of asset holders. Or, perhaps these securities could be designed with environmental protection in mind, i.e. a government could not change the ecosystem without approval from a board of directors controlled by the owners of the shares. Hopefully, they would make decisions in the best interest of the environment.

Thoughts Based on the Essays of Stephen Jay Gould

After reading Stephen Jay Gould’s book of essays, Bully for Brontosaurus, two titles really stuck in my mind. Although I enjoyed every one of the thirty five essays, the ones titled “Kropotkin Was No Crackpot” and “Justice Scalia’s Misunderstanding” were most provoking to my understanding of biology and science.
In “Kropotkin Was No Crackpot” Gould explains the influence on Charles Darwin’s Theory of Natural Selection by several import philosophical and economic thinkers in England. This people included Adam Smith and Thomas Malthus, who wrote about the importance of the individual and competition for survival and success. Darwin saw these forces of competition directly in action while visiting the tropical parts of the world. In such places, the environment is extremely hospitable to life and natural selection occurs largely through competition. Even though Darwin explained that natural selection also involves cooperation between organisms, he never experienced the importance of cooperation in environments such as Siberia — where natural selection largely occurs through environmental survival ability.
Petr Kropotkin witnessed first hand the reliance on cooperation, or “mutual aid” as he calls it, in the frozen Siberian environment. Natural selection, he says, forces the organism to cooperate with his neighbors and relatives in order to survive such harsh environments. Organisms which work together to survive will be much more successful than organisms which compete with each other for individual success. In many ways, I feel that the entire ecosystem of Earth is such a cooperative network of organisms; working together to live on a rocky marble in the vacuum of space.
Gould provides a nicely written account of these ideas and displays how science can forget and ignore certain aspects of nature which do not agree or support widely held political or social beliefs. People in western societies tend to be so concerned with dog-eat-dog and every-man-for-him-self ideologies that they forget that some institutions exist as cooperatives, such as various churches, corporations, and higher education. Not to mention the fact that our body consists of all types of symbiotic organisms. For potential ideas on the subject of institutional cooperation see Greenleaf’s book, Servant Leadership.
Gould’s essay, “Justice Scalia’s Misunderstanding” made me realize that I sometimes forget what science really tries to do. Basically, Justice Scalia mistakenly views science as a sort of ideology; which attempts, as its goal, to explain the source of the universe and life. Instead, as Gould points out through the historical example of James Hutton, science provides hypotheses which attempt to explain empirical observations. It is quite obvious that no direct observations exists from the time of the automaton’s origin on Earth or the even the universe’s origin. All we can do is make inferences about the past based on indirect evidence. Any speculation on “who” or “what” created the universe is outside the realm of science — rather it is simply speculation. With regards to the question of how did life arise on Earth, science can provide various hypotheses of all kinds. But they are opinions and hypotheses until direct evidence can be found in favor of one or disproving another.
Justice Scalia believed religious opinions were equivalent with scientific hypotheses; an incorrect belief. I jot my ideas down when I have time and many of them deal with speculations on who, how and why the universe exists. Sadly, these are not scientific questions of any kind – rather, they are speculations which are most likely far from the truth. I do believe that these speculations can be shaped and formed into scientific hypotheses. For example, my post about future organisms on Earth incorporating human made materials such as plastic in their bodies can be rephrased from a speculation to a scientific hypothesis. All that is needed is a question to answer. Perhaps this question is: do there exist organisms which have changed their genetic structure in such a way to make use of a new material present in their environment? The is answer to that is obviously YES! All oxygen breathing organisms did so millions of years ago. Then I must ask, what does it take to make this change and how can we do it today?

Thoughts About Thoughts

What are thoughts? Are they words dancing around inside your head? At the most basic level, what are they? A suggestion: neural electronic pattern networks inside the brain somehow related to the patterns produced by vibrations. Look at the results in cymatics to see what these patterns probably look like.

Geoffrey West Question and Response

The other day I heard Geoffrey West’s talk on sustainability, cities, cells, organisms, and complexity. He mentioned the universal scaling law which exists in biological systems called the  “3/4 power law,” (see Kleiber’s Law for an example). After the lecture, I asked the question: What about organisms on other planets, do you think they will obey this “3/4 power law?”

Watch the actual question on YouTube.

West’s response was interesting. He basically said that it would be likely only if these organisms followed the same networking structures and patterns which we observe in Earth’s biosphere (for example, most people are familiar with networks which are hierarchical). In other words, there may be network structures on other worlds, unfamiliar to any scientist here on Earth. If there exist such unknown networks which have guided the evolution of these alien organisms, then these organisms will not obey this “3/4 power law.”
Fascinating response, especially considering the general Astro-Biology ideas of Kauffman. These ideas hypothesize a biological science which can explain all life in the universe, not just life in Earth’s biosphere.

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