An Autonomous Agent

exploring the noosphere

Category: phase transitions (Page 2 of 2)

Natural Resource Depletion – Solution: Algae Oil and Water Cavitation

I recently read Phase Transitions, by Ricard Sole. The last chapter talks about societal collapse due to resource depletion. Under some assumptions, modelling the per capita consumption rate of natural resources shows that there exists a phase transition between stability and collapse. In other words, a gradual increase in the per capita consumption rate (or an increase in population, given a fixed per capita consumption rate) will result in a sudden and extreme phase shift — from stability to instability, i.e. collapse.
Interestingly, the book Why Stock Markets Crash, by Didier Sornette, mentions the same phase transition, or critical point as he refers to it, occurring due to an increasing rate of population growth and dependence upon technology. The rate of population growth implies the occurrence of a finite time singularity. Upon reaching this critical point, a change from one regime into another will occur. What this change will be is unknown.
There have been numerous large civilizations of the past whose existence was relatively brief on the face of the Earth. Will modern civilization have the same fate? These two books suggest an impending change. However, there is a chance that this time could be different. No other society in history has been able to predict its own demise. Is this the key? The knowledge of one’s own collapse could be sufficient to prevent it.
I believe to at least postpone the arrival of this phase transition requires only that we have a full dependence on renewable resources and find a revolutionary way to produce and distribute fresh water. Once these are accomplished, other issues which could lead to collapse can be fixed in due time.
Surprisingly, there already exist potential solutions which I believe can solve the problem: Algae Oil and Water Cavitation. Growing algae in deserts near the ocean seems like a terrific idea for generating fuel. Not to mention the fact that the algae remove CO2 from the air. However, I can foresee that this could actually create a problem, since too little CO2 in the atmosphere is also a problem.
Water Cavitation, as mentioned in the link above, provides a reliable mechanism for removing chemicals and organisms from water. A perfect source of clean, fresh water for the world. However, there still exists the problem of water availability. Perhaps there are good ideas for this, I am not sure.

Why Stock Markets Crash – Didier Sornette

Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette could be one of the most creative and unique scientific approaches to understanding the stock market I have read. The approach lies in complexity theory and involves identifying properties of critical self-organizing systems. I highly recommend this book for any reader interested in complexity theory, self-organization, and financial markets.

Origins of Order – Stuart Kauffman

Origins of Order, by Stuart Kauffman, provides a new look at evolution through natural selection. Instead of holding that the main creator of order is genetic drift with Natural Selection, Kauffman explores the idea that order can spontaneously form under various conditions in the natural world. Kauffman also emphasizes the importance of co-evolution among organisms in creating complex evolutionary systems. All of these ideas are explored through the mathematical tool of fitness landscapes.

The book, although long and dense, provides deep insights into the nature of life and evolution. The concepts  presented involve mathematics, computer science, chemistry, and biology. I would recommend this book if the reader likes these topics and has enough time (or is fast reader). (ISBN-13: 978-0195079517)

Investigations – Stuart Kauffman

Investigations seems to be a further expansion of the ideas presented in Kauffman’s book Origins of Order (see other post). As a note, I found that both are very dense and hard to read. However, the concepts presented within are worth the effort. The book provides a novel approach at explaining the origins of life. I found the most fascinating concepts in the novel to be the Adjacent Possible and the idea of Autonomous Agents.

An Autonomous Agent is simply a system which reproduces itself and carries out a work cycle.

The idea of an Adjacent Possible shines light on the idea of entropy in the universe. Investigations contains an entire section talking about Maxwell’s Demon and the nonergodicity (see ergodic hypothesis) of the universe. Briefly, the Adjacent Possible is the set of all “next” states of the universe. To give an example, consider the early universe. Consisting almost entirely of Hydrogen and Helium, we would say that the universe was in a “Actual State” of Hydrogen and Helium. The Adjacent Possible of chemicals would be the empty set — that is, no chemical states can be “formed” from Hydrogen and Helium (gravity has yet to create stars).  Then, once stars began to form, the Adjacent Possible began to include more states; elements like Carbon and Oxygen are the “next” states in the interior of stars under the right temperature and pressures.  Fast forward billions of years and human organisms are creating “next” states in the chemical Adjacent Possible (assuming alien civilizations have not already created these states). For example, humans have created nylon, plastic, Teflon, and various other molecular states.  These states would have been considered elements of the Adjacent Possible in the early 20th century; now, they are elements of the “Actual State” of the universe.

Thus, the universe can be considered nonergodic. It has yet to explore, and most likely will not explore, a large portion of the possible states of the universe.

Kauffman also talks about economics. He explains that modern economic theories fail to predict and account for the persistent innovation of human “goods” into the Adjacent Possible of “goods.”

I would highly recommend Investigations. It really is a must read! (ISBN-13: 978-0195121056)

Phase Transitions and Signs of Life – Ricard Sole

Phase Transitions by Ricard Sole provides a mathematical account of many current areas of research in the field of of complexity. The book demonstrates the wide range of topics that involve complex systems. I feel that the book would be a good reference for further study, as it contains many references.

I was first introduced to the writings of Sole when I found his book entitled Signs of Life. Signs of Life can be considered as a prelude to Phase Transitions. I believe that it was by accident that I found Sole’s book in the library catalog, or perhaps it was after I had read Emergence The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson. I feel like Johnson mimicked the outline and ideas of Sole, but that is only my opinion.  Sole’s book provides amazing details on the prevalence of complexity all around us. The book provides a simple and easy to read introduction to the concepts of complexity and serves as a starting point for Kauffman’s books Investigations and Origins of Order (both Sole and Kauffman work/worked at the Santa Fe Institute), which I discuss in other posts. (ISBN: 9780691150758)

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